NFL Division Playoffs Forecast
2018 NFL Season record
51(W) – 31(L) – 3(P) = 62%
NFL Playoff Record ATS
3 – 1 = 75%
NFL Wildcard Round
Current lines from Westgate Casino Super Contest in Las Vegas
Texan -1.5 Loss
Seahawks +2.5 Win
Chargers +2.5 Win
Eagles +5.5 Win
NFL Division Round Saturday ATS Picks’
Indianapolis Colts (5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs 3:35pm CDT
Total O/U 56.5
The Colts have been the comeback story of the NFL season, they started 1-5 and have won 10 of their last 11 games including a playoff road win last week in Houston. Although QB’s making their first appearance in the playoffs all lost last week (D. Watson, L. Jackson and M. Trubisky), you get the feeling Pat Mahomes is different, the Chiefs haven’t scored less than 26 points in any game this season, he passed for 50 TD passes and over 5,000 yards this season he joins Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in NFL history who have accomplished this in the NFL. Nicknamed ‘Showtime Mahomes this QB and the Chiefs are must watch TV for NFL football fans. The Colts are trying to win their 3rd straight road game that very rarely happens in the NFL the odds are against it, plus dome teams on the road in the cold don’t play well. The loss of starting safety Mike Mitchell is critical and safety M. Hooker may not play, TE T Kelce will be a key in this game since the Colts are one of the worst pass defenses covering TE’s, last week the Colts were fortunate that Texans QB D. Watson missed throws to the TE that could have changed the outcome of the game. The weather will be in the low 30’s with winds between 11 to 20 mph no snow expected during the game.
My Betting Research Analysis
In the divisional round since 2003 the home team have gone 24-35 ATS 40.7%
QB’s making their first start in the playoffs since 2002 are 11-31-1 ATS 25%
QB’s first playoff start as home favorite 3-16 ATS 15%
QB’s as a favorite 5-17 ATS 22%
The Chiefs are 3-17 ATS 15% since 1970 and 4-16 straight up, also 0-9 0% ATS at home. The Chiefs are 0-4 SU and ATS versus the Colts in playoff history, this is very troubling if you are a Chiefs fan and bettor. Since 2003 when a team averages over 30 ppg or more and faces a team that is coming off a bye they are 7-17 ATS 29%.
Colts 27 Chiefs 24
Dallas Cowboys at LA Rams (-7) 7:15pm CDT
Total O/U 49.5
The Cowboys who finished 3-5 on the road this season and have won 7 of their last 8 games, advanced to the divisional round after beating the Seahawks 24-22 in Dallas. This will be QB D. Prescott first start in the playoffs on the road in his career. The Rams finished the season 13-3 and average over 32 ppg. heading into their first playoff game. Todd Gurley will start and is healthy for this game, look for the Rams to start fast and get off to a good start versus the Cowboys. These two teams played against each other last season in 2017 and the Rams beat them 35-30 in Dallas as the Cowboys blew a 24-13 lead at halftime and the Rams FG kicker Greg Zeurlein kicked 7 field goals.
My Betting Analysis
The Cowboys are a poor road team as their road record suggests and one of the reasons why is TO margin, on the road Dallas is ranked 15th while the Rams at home are ranked 4th in the NFL in winning the TO battle. The Cowboys must avoid turnovers to win this game on Saturday night, in the NFL team that win the TO margin win a majority of the time. The Rams defense is the key here the Cowboys are a poor red zone offense ranked 27th in the NFL in efficiency, if the Rams can hold the Cowboys to field goals and get some turnovers that will be a key to victory.
The Rams with Coach McVay are 5-1 ATS 85% when they have 8 or more days of rest prior to their next game and cover the spread on the game by an average of 11 points.
Team that are getting less than 50% of bets like the Rams are 12-4 ATS 75% in the playoffs.
Look for the Rams WR’s B. Cook, J. Reynolds and R. Woods take advantage of the Dallas pass defense ranked 16th in the NFL and 22nd defending receivers in the slot, also watch the Rams utilize Gurley as a receiver coming out of the backfield.
LA Rams 34 Dallas Cowboys 24
NFL Division Round Sunday ATS Picks’
LA Chargers +4 at NE Patriots 12:00pm CDT
Total O/U 47.5
The LA Chargers with the best road record in the AFC travel to New England to face the 8-0 Patriots the only undefeated home team in the NFL. Chargers QB P. Rivers is 0-7 lifetime when playing against the Pats and QB T. Brady. Both teams are healthy heading into this game and the weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 20’s wind speeds 5-6 mph it shouldn’t impact the passing game. The Chargers are 8-0 when playing outside of Los Angeles this season. The Chargers are the only team left in the playoffs that are top 10 in Offense and Defense in DVOA rankings and are playing with a lot of confidence heading into this game.
My Betting Analysis
The Chargers are the only team in the NFL this season that has won over 7 games on the road this season, that has occurred 7 other times in NFL history and all the other seven teams advanced to the super bowl and won. The Patriots are a different team at home versus on the road you can never count out QB T. Brady the GOAT. TE R. Gronkowski has been missing in action all season, for the Pats to move on they need Gronkowski to play at the all pro level as in previous seasons. The Patriots are ranked 30th in the NFL in sacks this season they don’t really rush the passer all that well. The Chargers have won road games at Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Denver this season winning in New England will not faze them look for the best road team in the NFL LA Chargers advance to the AFC Championship.
LA Chargers 24 New England Patriots 20
Philadelphia Eagles +8 at NO Saints 3:30pm CDT
Total O/U 51.5
The Saints beat the Eagles in November 48-7, at that point the Eagles had hit rock bottom with a losing record of 4-6, this team quietly turned their season around after that game winning 5 of their last 6 games to get in the playoffs. Two things happened that changed their season, first C. Wentz got hurt and Nick Foles filled in and instantly the team rallied around him. Second, RB Darren Sproles finally recovered from the hamstring injury and when he plays and is healthy the Eagles are 12-2. The Saints are dominant at home and are 3-1 versus NFC East teams this season. They are the most dominant team in the NFL when playing in a dome with a 6-2 home record.
My Betting Analysis
The Eagles OL and DL are finally fully healthy for this game and will be key for the Eagles to win this game they need to play better than they did against the Bears. Underdogs are on a 14-1 run ATS since the 2017 playoffs. Look for that trend to continue as this game goes down to the wire as the Eagles try to redeem themselves for that embarrassing loss in November. This is a different Eagles team than the one they played in November look for the Eagles to keep this game within the 8-point spread.
Philadelphia Eagles 30 New Orleans Saints 27
Enjoy and have fun watching the games this weekend.
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
The Sports Prophet