My NBA and NCAA Basketball Picks for Feb 21st 2019

 

Daily Sports Forecast

2019 CBB Plays

Tuesday 02/21/2019

 

CBB Play#1

Cleveland State at Wright State

Total O/U 145 6:00 pm CDT

Game Preview

Wright State is tied with Northern Kentucky for first place in the Horizon league and has a lot of incentive to win this game at home where they are 12-2. Cleveland St is 0-11 on the road this year and lost to Wright St. at home by 23 points 89-66. Now they are on the road where they have lost by 14,15,17 in their last 3 road games. Look for Wright St cruise to an easy victory today by at least 15 to 20 points tonight

Predicted Score

Wright State 81 Cleveland State 60

NBA Play#1

Houston Rockets at LA Lakers (+3)

Total O/U 233 9:30 pm CDT

Game Preview

The Lakers are at home facing the Houston Rockets and James Harden, The Rockets are 13-15 on the road this year and the Lakers are 16-12 at home, the Lakers are 0-3 against the Rockets this season and need to start winning games to make the playoffs. Lebron James said he is in ‘playoff mode’ heading into this game look out the King has spoken take the Lakers +3 and watch this play out on TNT tonight.

Predicted Score

Lakers 118 Rockets 112

Recap

Yesterday I went 3-0 to redeem myself from the 0-2 result from Tuesday it was a great bounce back, below are the games I am betting on tonight.

Wright St (-14)

Lakers (+3)

Let’s go 2-0 tonight

Enjoy and have fun watching the games Tonight.

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

 

 

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Daily CBB Forecast Feb 20th 2019

 

Daily Sports Forecast

2019 CBB Plays

Tuesday 02/20/2019

CBB Play#1

Rutgers (+15.5) at Michigan State

Total O/U 136 5:30 pm CDT

Game Preview

Michigan State is at home favored by 15.5 points against Rutgers this is an over inflated line, MSU played last month and beat them by 9 now they bookmaker wants you to lay 15.5? I know the Spartan are playing at home, but they just lost F Nick Ward their second leading scorer to injury, Rutgers is playing much better now, and I expect them to keep the score within 15.5 points.

Predicted Score

Michigan State 68 65 Rutgers 59

CBB Play#2

Butler at Marquette (-6)

Total O/U 144.5 8:00pm CDT

Game Preview

Marquette is chasing Villanova for 1st place in the Big East and needs this game they played Butler earlier this season at Butler and beat them by 18 points in January, now they play at Marquette tonight where Marquette is 15-1 at home this season. Butler on the road this year has not been good and in their last three road games are shooting 28% from the 3pt range and are also the worst free throw shooting team in the conference at 70%. Marquette is ranked 1st in 3pt shooting and free throw percentage. I am going to lay the 6 points and watch Marquette cruise to victory to keep their conference championship hopes alive.

Predicted Score

Marquette 82 Butler 72

CBB Play#3

Utah at Washington (-8.5)

Total O/U 140 10:00pm CDT

Game Preview

Washington has just dominated the Pac 12 this season and plays a Utah team they beat in January in Utah by 16, 69-53. The Huskies are 12-0 at home this year and have won their last 4 home games by 13 or more points. The Utes are 5-1 in conference play this year on the road. Washington coach Hopkins has implemented the 2-3 zone defense that he used at Syracuse to win a lot of games and it is paying off for the Huskies big time as Pac 12 opponents have struggled to figure it out. The Huskies rank 2nd in the conference in 3pt shooting percentage, and the Utes are ranked 270th in defense in the NCAA this season. The Utes also only shoot 65% from the free throw line, bad defense and bad free throw shooting will lead to a blow out on the road against this solid Washington team.

Recap

Yesterday I went 0-2 as both team I bet on lost Davidson and Iowa. I am going to bounce back today in a big way and get back on the winning track with the plays below

Rutgers (15.5)

Marquette (-6)

Washington (-8.5)

I am going  3-0 tonight in CBB

Enjoy and have fun watching the games Tonight.

 

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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Daily Forecast CBB Feb 19th 2019

 

Daily Sports Forecast

2019 CBB Plays

Tuesday 02/19/2019

CBB Play#1

Dayton at Davidson (-3)

Total O/U 133 5:00pm CDT

Game Preview

An Atlantic 10 conference game with the first place Davidson Wildcats in first place facing the Dayton Flyers who are tied for fourth place in the conference two games behind first place, if Dayton has any chance of winning the regular season championship this is a must game for Dayton. These two teams played earlier this season in Dayton and the Dayton Flyers won 65-64. Davidson 12-0 this season at home will seek revenge against Dayton in a game that they need to stay in first place in the conference. Davidson is 7-4 ATS at home this season while Dayton is 4-3 ATS on the road this season. Look for Davidson superior 3-point shooting be the difference in winning this game and cover the 3-point spread. Dayton shoots just 68% on free throws while Davidson shoots 75%, in a close game 3 pt. shooting and free throw shooting being the difference and Davidson has the edge in both categories.

Predicted Score

Davidson 65 Dayton 60

CBB Play#2

Maryland at Iowa (-2)

Total O/U 148 7:00pm CDT

Game Preview

The 19th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes have won 4 in a row and now are 8-2 in their last ten games, The Hawkeyes are making a move to get in the NCAA tournament and beating a Maryland team that is ranked 25th will help build their case. The Maryland Terrapins have lost their last 19 road games versus Top 25 teams and is going into a hornets’ nest facing Iowa on the road. The Iowa Hawkeyes are 5-1 in games decided by 5 point or less this season and are playing well look for the Hawkeyes homecourt advantage where they are 13-2 this season and their superior 3point shooting to be a decisive factor in winning this game.

Predicted Score

Iowa 71 Maryland 65

Enjoy and have fun watching the game Tonight.

 

 

 

 

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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Super Bowl LIII 2019

 

Super Bowl LIII 2019

2018 NFL Season record

Premium Plays

51(W) – 31(L) – 3(P) = 62%

NFL Playoff Record ATS

W-L Record

6 – 4 = 60%

NFL Wildcard Round

Current lines from Westgate Casino Super Contest in Las Vegas

Texan -1.5 Loss

Seahawks +2.5 Win

Chargers +2.5 Win

Eagles +5.5 Win

NFL Division Round ATS Results

Actual Scores

Colts 13 (+5.5) Chiefs 31 Loss

LA Rams 30 (-7) Dallas Cowboys 22 Win

LA Chargers 28 (4.5) New England Patriots 41 Loss

Philadelphia Eagles (+8) 14 New Orleans Saints 20 Win

NFC Conference Championship ATS Picks’

LA Rams (+3) at New Orleans Saints 2:00pm CDT

Total O/U 56.5

Actual Predicted Score

Rams (+3) 26 Saints 23 Win

AFC Conference Championship ATS Picks’

Actual Score

Patriots 37 – Chiefs 31 (-3) Loss

My Super Bowl LIII Pick

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs LA Rams 5:30pm CDT

Total 55.5

Mercedes Benz Dome

Atlanta Georgia

Game Prediction

This will be the Patriots 9th appearance in the Super Bowl in the Brady/Belichik era as they are 5-3 in the previous 8, the Patriots are looking to redeem themselves after losing last year to the Eagles 41-33. I believe the Rams are the better overall team, and my heart tells me to go with the Rams, but my research and brain is telling me the Patriots are the move, therefore, I can’t overlook the impact of QB Tom Brady, he will be the difference maker in this game. He will be the first QB over the age of 40 to win a Super Bowl and he will be the first QB in history to win 6 Super Bowls, both accomplishments that are hard to believe but will further prove he is the GOAT. I have been watching Brady play since his days playing QB at Michigan and he always plays great in big games, he is simply a money player. I am going to put my money on him Sunday and witness the GOAT add another SB ring to his legacy.

Predicted Score

Patriots (-2.5) 34 Rams 31

Enjoy and have fun watching the game Sunday.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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NFL NFC/AFC Championship Picks 2018 Season

 

NFL Conference Championship Playoffs 2018

2018 NFL Season record

Premium Plays

51(W) – 31(L) – 3(P) = 62%

NFL Playoff Record ATS

W-L Record

5 – 3 = 62%

NFL Wildcard Round

Current lines from Westgate Casino Super Contest in Las Vegas

Texan -1.5 Loss

Seahawks +2.5 Win

Chargers +2.5 Win

Eagles +5.5 Win

NFL Division Round ATS Results

Actual Scores

Colts 13 (+5.5) Chiefs 31 Loss

LA Rams 34 (-7) Dallas Cowboys 24 Win

LA Chargers 28 (4.5) New England Patriots 41 Loss

Philadelphia Eagles (+8) 30 New Orleans Saints 27 Win

NFC Conference Championship ATS Picks’

LA Rams (+3) at New Orleans Saints 2:00pm CDT

Total O/U 56.5

Game Preview

The Rams play the Saints again in New Orleans with the winner advancing to the Super Bowl representing the NFC, the Saints won the first game 45-35 as QB Drew Brees threw a late touchdown in the 4th qtr. to put the Saints up by 10 late in the game. The Rams are on a roll after beating the Dallas Cowboys in the division round 30-22 as their Offensive and defensive lines dominated this game and was the key factor why they won, the Rams now have won 3 in a row scoring at least 30 points in each game and are also 3-0 ATS. The Saints came back from a 14-point deficit in the 1st qtr. versus the Eagles and were able to come back and win 20-14 as the Saints defense held on for the victory with a game clinching interception at their 20-yard line as the Eagles were driving to score to win the game. All season long these two teams have been the best two teams in the NFC and are evenly matched heading into this game with identical records 14-3.

Game Forecast

The Saints have been dominant at home and play much better all-around at home, it will be loud, and the Rams may be going into a hornet’s nest Sunday afternoon. I believe playing in New Orleans earlier this season will be very helpful to the Rams and they will be better prepared to handle the crowd noise when they play the Saints. There are a couple of reasons why I like the Rams here in this spot.

  • The loss of their All Pro DT S. Rankins due to injury, this is a huge loss and will have a negative impact with the Saints pass rush and rush defense. You can be assured that the Rams will look to exploit this injury with their elite offensive line.
  • CB Aquib Talib didn’t play in the first game against the Saints and the Rams defense struggled while he was out all season. He is expected to start, and his presence will make things difficult for the Saints passing game.
  • Everyone believes the Rams are a finesse passing team but coach McVay after their loss to the Eagles in December made an adjustment to his offensive play calling and the Rams are now a power run team that uses the run to setup the play action passing game. Since this move the Rams are now averaging over 30 rush attempts per game and have scored at least 30 points in each game.

The Rams are getting 3 points as of this writing as an underdog look for the Rams to continue to use the run game with T. Gurley and CJ Anderson to setup their deadly play action passing game to put the Rams in position to win this matchup

Predicted Score

Rams 30 Saints 27

AFC Conference Championship ATS Picks’

Game Preview

Well oh well the great Patriots dynasty heads to KC to face ‘Showtime Mahomes and the Chiefs for the AFC championship, this will be the Patriots 8th straight appearance in the AFC conference championship. Patriots have lost their last three AFC championship road games with T Brady as QB. The Pats beat the best road team in the NFL, the Chargers last week in New England 41-28 as they raced out to a 35-7 halftime lead and cruised from there. These two teams met earlier on Sunday Night Football during the season as the Pats won 43-40 on a last second field goal to win the game. The Chiefs for the first time in franchise history will be hosting the AFC championship game in KC. The weather outlook will be around 20 degrees at kickoff and may be a factor in this game, the Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in every game they have played this year while the Patriots have underachieved on the road all season with a mediocre 3-5 record.

Game Forecast

This game is another rematch like the NFC game but instead of playing the game in New England it will be played in KC on grass. Arrowhead stadium is very load and gives the Chiefs an edge in this game. The question to ask which Pats team shows up? As good as the Pats play at home they have underachieved all season on the road, but more importantly their defense just hasn’t been the same as in years past as shown below.

  • The Pats rank 30th in sacks in the NFL
  • The Pats rank 27th in yards per rush on defense
  • The Pats strength of schedule is ranked 28th in the NFL
  • The Pats in Red Zone efficiency on Defense are ranked 21st (the Chiefs on RZ offense are ranked 4th in the NFL)
  • TE R. Gronkowski has been a shell of himself all year no longer a downfield threat.

Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes has thrown 50 TD passes this season joining Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the only QB’s to accomplish this goal in NFL history the previous two QB’s made it to the Super Bowl look for P. Mahomes to be the third QB to lead his team to the Super Bowl as the Chiefs get revenge for losing to the Pats earlier this season and meet the Rams in the Super Bowl.

Predicted Score

Chiefs 34 – Patriots 24

Enjoy and have fun watching the games Sunday.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks for 2018 Season

 

NFL Division Playoffs Forecast

2018 NFL Season record

Premium Plays

51(W) – 31(L) – 3(P) = 62%

NFL Playoff Record ATS

W-L Record

3 – 1 = 75%

NFL Wildcard Round

Current lines from Westgate Casino Super Contest in Las Vegas

Texan -1.5 Loss

Seahawks +2.5 Win

Chargers +2.5 Win

Eagles +5.5 Win

NFL Division Round Saturday ATS Picks’

Indianapolis Colts (5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs 3:35pm CDT

Total O/U 56.5

Game Preview

The Colts have been the comeback story of the NFL season, they started 1-5 and have won 10 of their last 11 games including a playoff road win last week in Houston. Although QB’s making their first appearance in the playoffs all lost last week (D. Watson, L. Jackson and M. Trubisky), you get the feeling Pat Mahomes is different, the Chiefs haven’t scored less than 26 points in any game this season, he passed for 50 TD passes and over 5,000 yards this season he joins Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in NFL history who have accomplished this in the NFL. Nicknamed ‘Showtime Mahomes this QB and the Chiefs are must watch TV for NFL football fans. The Colts are trying to win their 3rd straight road game that very rarely happens in the NFL the odds are against it, plus dome teams on the road in the cold don’t play well. The loss of starting safety Mike Mitchell is critical and safety M. Hooker may not play, TE T Kelce will be a key in this game since the Colts are one of the worst pass defenses covering TE’s, last week the Colts were fortunate that Texans QB D. Watson missed throws to the TE that could have changed the outcome of the game. The weather will be in the low 30’s with winds between 11 to 20 mph no snow expected during the game.

My Betting Research Analysis

In the divisional round since 2003 the home team have gone 24-35 ATS 40.7%

QB’s making their first start in the playoffs since 2002 are 11-31-1 ATS 25%

QB’s first playoff start as home favorite 3-16 ATS 15%

QB’s as a favorite 5-17 ATS 22%

The Chiefs are 3-17 ATS 15% since 1970 and 4-16 straight up, also 0-9 0% ATS at home. The Chiefs are 0-4 SU and ATS versus the Colts in playoff history, this is very troubling if you are a Chiefs fan and bettor. Since 2003 when a team averages over 30 ppg or more and faces a team that is coming off a bye they are 7-17 ATS 29%.

Predicted Score

Colts 27 Chiefs 24

Dallas Cowboys at LA Rams (-7) 7:15pm CDT

Total O/U 49.5

Game Preview

The Cowboys who finished 3-5 on the road this season and have won 7 of their last 8 games, advanced to the divisional round after beating the Seahawks 24-22 in Dallas. This will be QB D. Prescott first start in the playoffs on the road in his career. The Rams finished the season 13-3 and average over 32 ppg. heading into their first playoff game. Todd Gurley will start and is healthy for this game, look for the Rams to start fast and get off to a good start versus the Cowboys. These two teams played against each other last season in 2017 and the Rams beat them 35-30 in Dallas as the Cowboys blew a 24-13 lead at halftime and the Rams FG kicker Greg Zeurlein kicked 7 field goals.

My Betting Analysis

The Cowboys are a poor road team as their road record suggests and one of the reasons why is TO margin, on the road Dallas is ranked 15th while the Rams at home are ranked 4th in the NFL in winning the TO battle. The Cowboys must avoid turnovers to win this game on Saturday night, in the NFL team that win the TO margin win a majority of the time. The Rams defense is the key here the Cowboys are a poor red zone offense ranked 27th in the NFL in efficiency, if the Rams can hold the Cowboys to field goals and get some turnovers that will be a key to victory.

The Rams with Coach McVay are 5-1 ATS 85% when they have 8 or more days of rest prior to their next game and cover the spread on the game by an average of 11 points.

Team that are getting less than 50% of bets like the Rams are 12-4 ATS 75% in the playoffs.

Look for the Rams WR’s B. Cook, J. Reynolds and R. Woods take advantage of the Dallas pass defense ranked 16th in the NFL and 22nd defending receivers in the slot, also watch the Rams utilize Gurley as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

Predicted Score

LA Rams 34 Dallas Cowboys 24

NFL Division Round Sunday ATS Picks’

LA Chargers +4 at NE Patriots 12:00pm CDT

Total O/U 47.5

Game Preview

The LA Chargers with the best road record in the AFC travel to New England to face the 8-0 Patriots the only undefeated home team in the NFL. Chargers QB P. Rivers is 0-7 lifetime when playing against the Pats and QB T. Brady. Both teams are healthy heading into this game and the weather forecast calls for temperatures in the 20’s wind speeds 5-6 mph it shouldn’t impact the passing game. The Chargers are 8-0 when playing outside of Los Angeles this season. The Chargers are the only team left in the playoffs that are top 10 in Offense and Defense in DVOA rankings and are playing with a lot of confidence heading into this game.

My Betting Analysis

The Chargers are the only team in the NFL this season that has won over 7 games on the road this season, that has occurred 7 other times in NFL history and all the other seven teams advanced to the super bowl and won. The Patriots are a different team at home versus on the road you can never count out QB T. Brady the GOAT. TE R. Gronkowski has been missing in action all season, for the Pats to move on they need Gronkowski to play at the all pro level as in previous seasons. The Patriots are ranked 30th in the NFL in sacks this season they don’t really rush the passer all that well. The Chargers have won road games at Seattle, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Denver this season winning in New England will not faze them look for the best road team in the NFL LA Chargers advance to the AFC Championship.

Predicted Score

LA Chargers 24 New England Patriots 20

Philadelphia Eagles +8 at NO Saints 3:30pm CDT

Total O/U 51.5

Game Preview

The Saints beat the Eagles in November 48-7, at that point the Eagles had hit rock bottom with a losing record of 4-6, this team quietly turned their season around after that game winning 5 of their last 6 games to get in the playoffs. Two things happened that changed their season, first C. Wentz got hurt and Nick Foles filled in and instantly the team rallied around him. Second, RB Darren Sproles finally recovered from the hamstring injury and when he plays and is healthy the Eagles are 12-2. The Saints are dominant at home and are 3-1 versus NFC East teams this season. They are the most dominant team in the NFL when playing in a dome with a 6-2 home record.

My Betting Analysis

The Eagles OL and DL are finally fully healthy for this game and will be key for the Eagles to win this game they need to play better than they did against the Bears. Underdogs are on a 14-1 run ATS since the 2017 playoffs. Look for that trend to continue as this game goes down to the wire as the Eagles try to redeem themselves for that embarrassing loss in November. This is a different Eagles team than the one they played in November look for the Eagles to keep this game within the 8-point spread.

Predicted Score

Philadelphia Eagles 30 New Orleans Saints 27

Enjoy and have fun watching the games this weekend.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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Week 17 2018 NFL Picks

Sunday Forecast

2018 NFL Season record

Premium Plays

50(W) – 27(L) – 3(P) = 64%

NFL Week 17 Premium Picks

Current lines from Westgate Casino Super Contest in Las Vegas

Packers -8

Broncos +6.5

Vikings -4.5

Cardinals +13.5

Titans +3

NFL Week 17 Totals O/U Picks’

Lions at Packers Under 44.5

Colts at Titans Under 44

Cardinals at Seahawks Under 38.5

NFL Week 17 Sunday Picks and ATS

Pick’em              ATS

Packers                                 Packers -8

Bucs                                       Bucs +2

Saints                                    Saints -7.5

Patriots                                 Patriots -13.5

Texans                                   Texans -6.5

Bills                                        Bills -3.5

Giants                                    Giants -6.5

Eagles                                     Redskins +6.5

Vikings                                   Vikings -4.5

Seahawks                              Cardinals +13.5

Rams                                     Rams -10

Steelers                                 Bengals +14.5

Chargers                               Broncos +6.5

Browns                                 Browns +6

Chiefs                                   Chiefs -13.5

NFL Week 17 Sunday Night Pick and ATS

Pick’em      ATS

Titans           Titans +3

 

Happy New Year and have fun watching the games this weekend.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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Dec 22 Weekend NFL Forecast

 

Sunday Forecast

2018 NFL Season record

Premium Plays

47(W) – 25(L) – 3(P) = 65%

NFL Week 16 Premium Picks

Current lines from Westgate Casino Super Contest in Las Vegas

Team

Cowboys -7.5

Dolphins -4

Vikings -5.5

Bears -4

Seahawks +2.5

NFL Week 16 Saturday Picks’ and ATS

Pick’em              ATS

Titans               Titans -10

Chargers         Chargers -4

NFL Week 16 Sunday Picks and ATS

Pick’em               ATS

Colts                  Giants +9.5

Cowboys           Cowboys -7.5

Patriots            Patriots -13.5

Dolphins         Dolphins -4

Vikings           Vikings -5.5

Packers           Packers -3

Texans            Texans +2.5

Browns           Bengals +10

Panthers        Panthers +3.5

Rams             Cardinals +14

Bears             Bears -4

Saints            Steelers +6

Seahawks     Seahawks +2.5

NFL Week 16 Monday Pick and ATS

Pick’em             ATS

Raiders            Raiders +2.5

 

Merry Christmas and have fun watching the games this weekend.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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Sunday Week 15 NFL Forecast

 

Sunday Forecast

2018 NFL Season record

Premium Plays

44(W) – 23(L) – 3(P) = 65%

NFL Week 15 Premium Picks

Current lines from Westgate Casino Super Contest in Las Vegas

Colts -5

Dolphins +7

Ravens -7.5

Packers +6

Steelers +2.5

NFL Week 15 Picks’ and ATS

Pick’em                 ATS

Bengals                Bengals -3

Falcons                Falcons -9.5

Colts                    Colts -3

Giants                 Giants -2.5

Bills                     Bills -2.5

Chiefs                Chiefs -6.5

Vikings             Dolphins +7.0

Ravens             Ravens -7.5

Jags                  Redskins +7.5

Bears               Packers +6

Seahawks       Seahawks -3.5

Steelers          Steelers +2.5

Rams              Eagles +11

Saints             Panthers +5.5

 

Thanks for Reading and have fun watching the games today.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

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Thursday NFL Forecast Dec 13

 

Thursday NFL Forecast

 

 

 

   

LA Chargers at KC Chiefs (-3.5) 7:20pm CDT

Total O/U 53

Game Preview

The Chiefs can clinch the AFC West division Thursday night against the Chargers, The Chiefs clinched a playoff spot last Sunday against the Ravens, I am sure the Chiefs would like to start the playoffs with a home playoff game and a first round bye and a win Thursday will go a long way in meeting that goal. The Chargers are looking to win this game in KC on a short week which is a very difficult task. KC has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and have beaten the Chargers 10 straight times yes this is not a misprint 10 straight times. The Chargers are the best road (5-1) team in the AFC this season, which should give them confidence heading into this game. Below are my keys to the game

Keys to Victory

Injuries

The loss of Kareem Hunt due to the TMZ video was a tough loss for the Chiefs but also losing RB S. Ware this past Sunday will limit their depth on Thursday night, D. Williams will start in his place. The Chargers will miss ultra-back A. Ekeler who is a key piece of their running game. Also M. Gordon may not play due to knee issues and is a game time decision, rookie RB Justin Jackson from Northwestern is probably going to start and has done a decent job in spot duty. Advantage Chiefs due to the short week and not having to travel.

Turnovers

The Chiefs (+6) have a slight edge versus the Chargers (+5) in turnover margin, if the Chargers have any chance of winning in Arrowhead stadium they must play with no turnovers, with J. Bosa they may be able to put pressure on Chiefs QB P. Mahomes to force some turnovers Advantage Chiefs

Special Teams

The Chargers special teams especially the kicking game has been awful all year, they are ranked near the bottom in special team in my power rankings only the Browns are worse. Their kicking game has missed 12 extra points and going to Arrowhead stadium in wintry weather will be a key to watch in this game. Advantage Chiefs

Intangibles

The Chiefs have the Chargers number as they have beaten them 10 straight times, the NFL did no favors for the Chargers by scheduling this game on a short week, the home team is 11-1-1 ATS the last 12 games on Thursday night, all pro S. Eric Berry is scheduled to make his debut Thursday night and is one of the spiritual leaders of the Chiefs. Although the Chiefs played an overtime game this past Sunday versus the Ravens and won a thrilling game 27-24, until the Chargers prove to me they can beat the Chiefs I will continue to fade them. KC coach Reid has owned the Chargers since he joined the Chiefs in 2012 the last time he lost to the Chargers, as he played a bunch of backups due to resting his starters for the playoffs, in San Diego in December of 2013 and barely lost 27-24. This just appears to me to be the Chiefs year as P. Mahomes has led the Chiefs as a super bowl contender. Advantage Chiefs

Game Prophecy

The Chiefs have one of the best home field advantages in the NFL as loud as the home field of the Seattle Seahawks, also you have a west coast team from LA playing in cold weather in KC on a short week and for the reasons mentioned above I will ride with the Chiefs to win this game and lay the 3.5 points. The Chiefs have the look of a super bowl contender and the loyal Chiefs fan base are starting to feel the momentum for a Super Bowl run and will beat the Chargers again, as the saying goes ‘History tends to repeat itself’.

Predicted Score

Chiefs 30 Chargers 23

Juanster

The Sports Prophet

 

 

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